There's nothing like a loud, baseless Herald story to get the morning started right. Today's tabloid trumps Heath Ledger's death with, "BUSTED! Deval Casino Plan's Just Like Michigan's... And They Lost $10M Last year." This Bostonist happens to be wearing a Detroit Tigers cap and sweatshirt as we type this, but we don't need Michigander bias to be dismayed by the lack of evidence in their piece.

The story's only statistic-backed argument is that in 2007 Detroit's casino receipts dropped $82 million from the 2006 numbers (from $1.303 billion to $1.221 billion) with a resultant $9.91 million drop in the state's tax revenue. The 2007 numbers are almost identical to the 2005 numbers, with only an $860 thousand dollar reduction in tax revenue from the $148.65 million the state raised through casinos in 2005.

So the big question in the story should be: why the drop from 2006 to 2007? Or, better yet, why the jump in 2006 from the very similar 2005 and 2007 figures? The Herald has no idea. They rely on two Michigan pols---who the story admits are opponents of gambling--who claim that the casino market is "tapped out" and that there's a "finite pot of gambling pot." Both of those things are probably true.

But the Herald never considers that there may have been a link between the Detroit casinos' high 2006 performance and the fact that that was when the city hosted both Super Bowl XL and the Tigers' improbable run to the World Series. Those are the kind of destination events, loaded with disposable income, that don't happen in Detroit nearly often enough.

Whatever your stance on gambling, Gov. Patrick's plan deserves better than the superficial reasoning (Detroit has three casinos, Patrick wants three casinos--the situation is identical!) shown in the Herald's piece. Detroit didn't "lose $10M" because of casinos in 2007: casino receipts are variable, and shouldn't be treated like guaranteed income. Plus, Detroit is dealing with its own particular set of political problems--it's the headquarters of a failing industry in an economically depressed region of the country with entrenched urban decay.

Advice to the Herald: Leave Detroit alone, and attack Patrick's plan on its own merits. There's enough to go around.

Screenshot of today's Herald.