It's unfortunate that yesterday's Herald gave huge play to a superficial analysis of Detroit's casinos and their similarity to Governor Deval Patrick's gambling vision. Bostonist was tough on the piece, which made up for its lack of evidence with a few anecdotes and general confusion.
Meanwhile, today's dispatch from the Motor City by Dave Wedge is substantial and nuanced---and buried alive under a host of Patriots stories that the Herald willed into existence.
Wedge lays out a brief history of Michigan's intoxication with gambling's anticipated tax revenues and shows that casinos have continually underwhelmed expectations. Where yesterday's article relied solely on an unexplained one year dip, this one details a December 2007 upturn and takes into account regional economic trends.
Tonight is Governor Patrick's State of the Commonwealth address. Coming on the heels of his budget, he'll have to prove that raising spending while facing a structural deficit and a gloomy national financial picture is feasible. How well he does that will rest largely on his ability to extract new revenue, like his plan to close corporate tax loopholes (or boost taxes on corporations, depending on your ideology or income bracket) and, of course, gambling. Hopefully, like Wedge, we can move past the rhetoric and get a realistic picture of the odds we're up against.
We'll have a full report tomorrow from Patrick's speech tomorrow (shaky YouTube footage and all.)
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