Boston Mayoral Election Poll Data Makes Menino Seem Good, Bad (Not Ugly)

The Phoenix has raised a bit of a flap over a Globe poll that suggests overall satisfaction with Mayor Tom Menino's performance and a greater affection for Menino than for mayoral election rival Michael Flaherty. 52% are likely to vote for Menino; 32% for Flaherty.

The Phoenix alleges that the Globe poll may not be a representative sample of Boston residents likely to vote, possibly including people not even registered, and also suggests that Michael Flaherty's own poll may be more accurate. While the assertion that the Globe poll may have included folks not registered to vote seems dubious (the poll now clearly states that it is of registered voters, even if it didn't do so before), it's still true that Flaherty's own poll addressed "likely" voters as opposed to just "registered" voters—a difference that could be significant.

Other data from the Globe poll make it seem a little odd that Boston voters support Menino. Though 66% "approve" of Menino's job performance, 25% or fewer of respondents think he's been "very" effective or that the city is "very" well run. Why do so many approve a performance that's only "somewhat" good? And with three-quarters of respondents seeing room for improvement, why isn't there more support for the opposition? Perhaps people feel that experience is better than the alternative, perhaps Bostonians are complacent, or perhaps they hope that Menino will improve.

Whatever your opinion on the polls, you can base your decision on the issues by watching tonight's mayoral candidate debate. It takes place at the JFK LIbrary from 7 to 8 pm. You can tune into NECN or watch a live stream at NECN.com.